Carrying a June wet weather market into July is very difficult say the history books. But it is 2015 and a lot of things are different today than years’ past. Maybe the biggest change of all rests in the information flow. The advent and explosion of the world wide web has expanded everyones’ reach, here and all around the world. Information flow and creation of new ideas and concepts has never been easier or faster. Twitter is just the icing on the cake. News travels fast to many. That makes for a different kind of market all by itself. That great piece of information you just found, heard, or discovered just isn’t new information. That makes technical analysis and experience all that more valuable and throw in a doze of common sense and good business judgement just for old times sake.
This week the market has to deal with a lot of issues:
First Notice Day for July futures this Tuesday
The end of the month
The end of the quarter
Last Friday’s options closes that may leave the Monday trade vulnerable
Two major crop reports on Tuesday at 11 a.m. – Estimated acreage and quarterly stocks
Weekly crop condition ratings on Monday at 3 p.m.
Financial markets in upheaval thanks to Greece
Hot weather in Europe
Wet weather in the U.S.
And the holiday weekend shortening the week.
Trying to ascertain just what affect various of these elements will have on the market is nearly impossible so look for the market to be very spastic at times. But it could be an important week for other reasons. A market weather rally in June that actually carries into July to the surprise of all. Wouldn’t that be something!
Wheat leads every good market and it is making the most important trade. This is on the back of hot and dry weather in parts of Western Europe and dryness in the western prairies of Canada. Maybe most importantly wheat is a huge short market with last week’s trade breaking out of a 6 month trading range on the day chart and an almost identical scene on the weekly chart. $6.24 PriceCounts look to be the near term September Chicago wheat target. December corn is attaining it’s second PriceCount today at $4.11 after a record volume on Friday.
Put all this together in a package and we have been and look to be able to sustain strength short term even in the face of all these above items we have to plug into the price equation. Traders are suggesting the soybean acreage number will not be the big factor expected and that just maybe the corn number will give an idea of what the farmers’ attitude is about the price world ahead for this and next year in grains. One thing for sure, we will have a lot of info and news and twitter blasts to analyze in this short holiday week.
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