The USDA’s March WASDE report was released Tuesday. Some of the highlights for the Total Grain statistics forecast slightly smaller World Total Grain output but with expanded usage, given at the top part of the table below. As a result, World Ending Stocks were reduced to 98.9% of the previous month but still +2.3% above the year earlier.
The US Total Grain Supply and Usage forecasts were little changed from the previous monthly forecast; but the Ending Grain stocks were reduced by -2%. Compared with the previous year, US Total Grain stocks are up sharply at +32.8% or 13.2% of the World wide Grain stocks, (compared with a year earlier at 10.2%). This suggests that the very strong US$ is a headwind for U.S. Total Grain exports. The March WASDE report did however, raise their forecast for Farm Level Corn prices a little, now ranging from $3.50 to $3.90 per bushel for a midpoint forecast at $3.70 per bushel compared with $4.46 a year earlier (83.0%).